My main point is that Sethi is aligning with the narrative of the Pakistani establishment. Given that he represents the liberal intelligentsia—an influential group that’s crucial to manage in order to shape public opinion—his positioning is strategic. As for the remaining 90% of the population, who often lack critical insight, this approach makes tactical sense. In that context, I actually find myself agreeing with the military's logic.
A Probabilistic Analysis Based on Regional Realpolitik
The recent terrorist attack in Pahalgam has reignited tensions across South Asia, prompting widespread speculation over who is responsible. While official accusations are yet to surface, India's strategic cues and Pakistan's internal dynamics offer fertile ground for a probabilistic breakdown of potential actors.
This analysis uses geopolitical reasoning, recent political events, and strategic signaling to explore the likelihood of involvement by various actors.
1. Probability: Pakistan’s Deep State – 70%
Rationale:
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Historical Precedent: The Pakistani Army and ISI have a documented history of involvement in cross-border terrorism, especially in Jammu & Kashmir.
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Institutional Incentives:
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Army Chief’s Tenure: General Asim Munir is nearing the end of his term. Historically, instability has often been used to justify military extensions.
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SIFC-Controlled Minerals Deal: The Pakistan Army exerts control over the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), which is central to the multibillion-dollar minerals deal. A manufactured national security emergency (via escalation with India) could facilitate the rushed passage of such deals through Parliament, sidestepping civil scrutiny.
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Strategic Leverage: In times of domestic political or economic instability, the military may orchestrate or allow proxy operations to regain relevance and divert public attention.
Supporting Argument: This analysis outlines how national security threats are used to push legislative priorities under military influence.
2. Probability: Local Kashmiri Militant Groups – 15%
Rationale:
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Local Grievances: Discontent in the Valley has deepened due to increased militarization and crackdowns on civil liberties post-Article 370.
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Operational Capabilities: While weakened, groups like Hizbul Mujahideen still maintain sleeper cells and could act independently or with minimal external support.
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Motivation: Religious ideology combined with political alienation can fuel localized acts of violence.
Counterpoint:
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The scale and timing suggest coordination and planning beyond what local actors typically achieve alone.
3. Probability: Rogue Elements or False Flag Operations – 10%
Rationale:
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India’s Internal Politics: The current government, led by a Prime Minister often criticized for impulsiveness and populist nationalism, has occasionally been accused of using security incidents to influence public sentiment or upcoming elections.
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Disinformation Tactics: There’s a non-negligible chance of orchestrating an event to escalate tensions and unify domestic opinion.
Caveat:
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There is no credible evidence yet that points to an internal false flag, and such theories often lack substantive grounding without verifiable leaks or whistleblowers.
4. Probability: Foreign Jihadi Networks (non-state, transnational) – 5%
Rationale:
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Groups like Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and remnants of ISIS-K have shown occasional interest in disrupting South Asia.
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However, there is limited evidence of logistical capability or motive to carry out targeted attacks in remote regions like Pahalgam at this time.
Reading India’s Response: Subtle Signals Without Direct Blame
India hasn't directly accused Pakistan yet—a move that could be strategic. However:
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Security forces have ramped up border deployments.
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Media channels aligned with government interests are indirectly building the Pakistan narrative.
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Back-channel diplomatic warnings reportedly have been issued.
This ambiguity allows India to prepare its response without committing to a confrontation unless evidence becomes undeniable.
Final Thoughts: Smoke, Fire, and Strategic Calculus
While a conclusive verdict remains elusive, the pattern suggests that Pakistan's military establishment stands to gain the most from regional destabilization at this juncture. Whether to justify internal power plays or push sensitive economic policies, the “excuse of war” narrative serves multiple purposes.
Yet, until clear attribution is established via intelligence findings or public claims of responsibility, the incident remains in the fog of war—a fog weaponized by both democracies and dictatorships alike.
Probability Scorecard Summary:
| Potential Actor | Probability |
|---|---|
| Pakistan Army/ISI | 70% |
| Local Kashmiri Militant Groups | 15% |
| Indian False Flag/Rogue Elements | 10% |
| Foreign Jihadist Networks | 5% |
Disclaimer: This is a probabilistic analysis based on open-source intelligence, strategic posturing, and historical context. It is speculative and not a substitute for formal investigation or intelligence assessment.
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