Pakistan: Endgame

So Najam Sethi did a very important analysis where he discussed macro geo political situation surrounding Pakistan.

The very situation, about which Zardari also has hinted often in his interviews the "international situation" and probably one of the reasons he is quite happily watching Mr Khan fail in every step he is taking.  When I see IK now I see a totally uninterested chap who is longing for good old days.  He is a hostage of his title so careful  what you wish for.  See here how he shakes hand with this IMF Chief, "a lady" enough said:




I am pretty sure establishment must be wishing for BB now to get them out of this quagmire!

But I get distracted, Sethi Sahib quiet openly explains the dire situation Pakistan has gotten itself into and it gives tremendous pain for someone who was born there and spent a precious time of life, looking at what awaits Pakistan and how foolishly Pakistanis have sleep walked into a mess for which only them are to blame.

In my opinion the situation that Pakistan right now facing, is directly related with the over all lack of understanding and lack of right education and not judging things on reason and logic especially of the educated brass.  One of the great example of that is that we believe in things like Jesus 2nd coming and the big Ghazwa -e-Hind. Enough said no more examples needed.

Even in this case,  this interview, gives some pointers about the thought process of the 99% populace in Pakistan.  This is first of all apparent from the emotions, appearance and occasional one word analytic additions by Osama, Najam Sethi host.  

Though Osama is overall doing a great job in interviewing Sethi as he lets him complete his sentences and that gives a good flow of the interview but in this particular instance (I am dissecting this interview due to its particular importance in my view) at one occasion he says something that reflects a peculiar psyche and the thought process of that 99% populace of Pakistan and that I explain now.  In the interview at one point Sethi mentions that in Venezuela there is a leftist government. To that Osama interjects with the word communist, but Sethi quickly corrects well leftist and they move on. I am pretty sure with that, Sethi understands he doesn't know what communist/communism is.  This is for me a big  billboard about Pakistan: In Pakistan people think left is communism and communism means those how are atheists and full stop. A general stupidity of folks in Pakistan.  As we proceed Osama is spell bound hearing the gravity of the situation and he ends the program with a little prayer for the survival of Pakistan.  I think he is right in that a little prayer now is the only thing we can do about Pakistan.

Similarly in one of my whats app group a member posts a video of a person where this person is stuck for the last 6 hours in a traffic jam and ultimately Pakistan army comes and manages the situation and traffic starts flowing again and he is justifying that with a rant that all civilians are inefficient and its the army that are the best people and everyone who thinks otherwise is Phen-ke-Pinney (a slur that i can feel what it means but don't know what it means as I myself have heard it first time).  However, I thought, dude when army is controlling the whole country it was in fact inefficient on their part that it took them 6 hours to come and fix the mess! And I unwittingly continued with the slur PhenkePinney lol.

But why is this important?  

Reason and logic are very important as they help you decipher the situation and bring out the truth from a pile of lies.  99% of people in Pakistan are sold some crap in mosques and schools that they keep buying no questions asked.  

This quagmire that Pakistan is into now is a result of many decision that were not based on reason and logic. For example sometimes it was mistake of not having good relations with Soviet Union, because well they were communists and all the communists are atheists, which for some reason is a biggest Gunnah that easily translated to Zia ul Haq becoming hand in glove with yankees and helping mujahideen!  This amazing theory made perfect sense to many in Pakistan.

After Soviets withdrew it was the strategic depth with the help of Taliban that culminated in a U turn and stabbing the very Taliban in the back and helping yankees in attacking Afghanistan.

 Sometimes it was hijacking elections to sometimes it was murdering your prime ministers.  It is for this reason Osama does not understand the difference between left and communism and it is for this reason the guy stuck for 6 hours in traffic praises the military that is 6 hour late in managing the traffic and it is for this reason Pakistan cannot come up with a right choice going forward.

Ah the right choice forward!.  While it is understood that there are not enough good enough examples to look at and learn or copy from as countries like South Korea, Japan and Germany do not have an independent foreign policy and have to obey their masters in Washington.  But yet there is one example of country that we can easily imitate  and that is North Korea.  

Lets see how.  North Korea may be the most sanctioned country in this world, but yet they do not have to go to IMF.  They must have devised ways to survive and trade for sure takes place via many hidden channels.  

This is the view of North Korea at night from space.  When I see this I see nothing wrong with that.  If you want to conserve energy you better get your work sorted out during day light.  Then North Korea has based her survival on Nuclear deterrence and this is why they are not willing to give up their nukes especially to yankees whom Russians call as "not agreement capable" people.  This is how they continue to survive as by doing so there expenses to run a country are bare minimum and no amount of sanctions can alter their will and subdue their resolve.  In fact all the countries who achieved Nuclear deterrence have done that and now all their research in defence is in R&D to develop new weapons only to export to other countries.   

Pakistan is in much better position than North Korea.  For a long time Pakistan was a net exporter of grains fruits and vegetables. We are and were an agrarian society. We have to get back to that. We do not need nice cars and cool electronic gadgetry we gotta stop all these foolish imports and become self sustaining in food and agriculture.  

As for defence we have nukes.  When Pakistan did the nuclear detonations, Dr A Q Khan the founder of Pakistan Nuclear Bomb said the defence of Pakistan is now impregnable.  That was the moment for the citizens of Pakistan to stop the foolish arms race and expenditures on defence.  Convert the 80% armed forces to reserves and save 80% expenses in this way.  spend the remaining 20% on on duty personnel and on R&D to deliver nukes if and when need be.  This is the nuclear deterrence doctrine on which North Korea has based her survival 

This is the only choice we are left with to avoid begging to IMF for few million dollars and by doing so be the scum of international community.   

This is though too far fetched to wish for. The consequences of the over all lack-of reason and logic has reached its critical mass and now Pakistan will be kicked around by the street thugs in the endgame that has already started and so sitting here from far away I will watch with great pain how the end game of Pakistan unfold and how Pakistan self destructs. 

Taliban will not listen to Pakistan for one simple reason they have nothing to lose.  IMF will only give some petty cash to Pakistan unless Pakistan agrees to supporting and agreeing to American demands related with Afghanistan and Iran and they in my view are destined to attack Iran.  This is about their, Americans own survival.  They cannot have a country like Iran dictate terms to them and they cannot have China succeed with their belt and road initiative.  By Attacking Iran they will extend maybe for few decades their empire and contain China.  Pakistan is just scrap material that would be recycled to build some new useful product.  This is the reality and i am not saying that Najam Sethi is saying that and what is left for Pakistan is to say a little prayer and hope for the best.  Meanwhile I am going to watch the Endgame.